Early NBL Season Thoughts

ADELAIDE

You can’t deny that they’ve tried to level up as an organisation with the recruitment of Mitch McCarron and the interesting collection of talent surrounding him. What it all adds up to though is looking like a middling team. They probably need fringe All-NBL production from both Isaac Humphries and Dusty Hannahs to be good enough on either end (and maybe an additional roster move).

Hannahs hasn’t shown as much of a consistent motor and zip off the ball, or the chops with it in hand so far to quite bend the defence enough for my liking. Humphries is clearly still working back into things with his body, timing, and touch, but he showed last year that he can get a team to overachieve on defence. This team needs their upside.

BRISBANE

Disappointing performance, particularly on offence in the opener. This team can pop on their day, with Robert Franks a high-quality addition that will help the pieces fit. Playoff chances are slim though when you’re relying on breakouts from multiple young players.

Andrej Lemanis explained in his final post-game press conference last season that he believed the club had a decision to make as to whether they truly wanted to compete and commit to providing the necessary resources on and off the court to do so. I can’t speak to the off-court stuff, but I would be surprised if the roster spend has increased. Sure, there’s some top end talent, but Nathan Sobey was already locked in before a career year, and Lamar Patterson would’ve been cheaper than previously. The depth this season includes a budget third import out of the New Zealand NBL, and several locals who would (or should) be on low end contracts.

Brisbane are a couple of moves away. Mangok Mathiang would obviously be a perfect piece when/if fit, but the Bullets aren’t the type of team I’d expect to land that type of fish mid-season.

CAIRNS

Sorry Taipans fans, but I can’t see this roster being any good on either end of the floor.

The memory of Scott Machado being in MVP discussion is fading as he took a small step back last season, and he hasn’t hit a shot since the start of this preseason. He is desperately missing some legit scoring options around him.

It will be an absolute raffle as to what the local contingent will give this team on either end each night, but shoutout to Tahjere McCall’s exceptional energy. He seems to have a high gear that not many have, although he’s a fair way from being a primary option on offence on a good team.

Loved the preseason quotes from Stephen Zimmerman (Jokic, DPOY). He had one assist and didn’t move well enough for long enough to be a plus on defence in the opener.

ILLAWARRA

A healthy Hawks team is a playoff lock and a title contender.

As Tyler Harvey commented post game on the weekend, Brian Goorjian has the it factor and that rubbed off yet again last season as they cobbled together a strong defence, despite just so-so defensive talent outside of Justin Simon. They also navigated the still truly perplexing Deng Adel scenario, as well as Cam Bairstow’s injury.

With that in mind, there was a clear need for more shooting and another primary creator in the backcourt to lesson the load on Tyler Harvey and open up the floor on offence. Those upgrades have been made with Duop Reath in particular ensuring that there won’t be a defensive downgrade.

MELBOURNE

This roster seems relatively easy to read right now. Defensively, they’re as tough as anyone with a number of plus-defenders and a defensive minded coach that will preach the details. Offensively though, the margin for error to be an above-average offence is small.

Game one showcased this perfectly of course with the one player that they couldn’t afford to be without, be ruled out injured. They found it extremely difficult to generate good shots with compromised space and little shooting or meaningful penetration.

If you didn’t know Melbourne were traditionally a big spender, you might think that they were a little cash strapped when they announced the roster as complete. It seems inevitable that there will be a mid-season roster addition with a focus on improving the offence. In the meantime, they’ll be a tough team to play, particularly with Goulding back to balance them out.

I can’t put them in that top group until a change happens.

NEW ZEALAND

Despite Matt Walsh’s claims that the Breakers have a championship calibre roster, I can’t see it, regardless of the travel factor.

It’s a good roster, one that should be entertaining and competitive, but it’s not well-rounded enough to be a serious challenger. Offensively, sure, you can make the case that there is a high-ceiling. Yanni Wetzell is excellent diving to the rim, Finn Delany can do it with skill and as a bully, and then you have a stack of talented guards to create. Those guards are all best with ball in hand though, so there’s some sort of diminishing returns there.

Defensively? That’s where the main flaw to being a championship calibre team is. The Breakers younger core of players in the rotation have shown that they are clear negatives so far and that’s not something that will be fixed any time soon one would think. Wetzell would need to make a significant leap as a rim protector and rebounder, and to top it off, their best defender is now out injured.

This is a fun roster, and I’ll enjoy watching them as long as the (possibly extended) travel arrangements don’t kill their vibe, but they’re not built to consistently compete with the top tier teams when it matters.

PERTH

Bryce Cotton and Vic Law are not only two of the best players in the league, but they’re also high character, so the chances of this team not meshing and performing at a high level (even with a new coach) was/is close to zero. What’s also clear, and perhaps made even more obvious due to early injuries, is that the Wildcats have crystal clear role definition.

We’ve just witnessed Jesse Wagstaff cook the Taipans in the fourth quarter as the small-ball C, but that’s an interesting lineup question to monitor for the playoffs. Matt Hodgson looked a long way from starter level in the preseason and is now injured, whilst Majok Majok has been rock solid, but is perhaps not quite a perfect late game playoff option.

Maybe we see a Law and Luke Travers mobile frontline in the crunch at times. Travers has looked excellent since the start of the preseason and has flashed some impactful defensive moments. It’s quite interesting to think about how much more of a contributor he is to winning than the higher ranked Mojave King. Where you see them as future prospects is up for debate, but there’s no doubting who is the more valuable player in the NBL this year.

SOUTH EAST MELBOURNE

Another of the playoff locks for me given their well-rounded and deep roster. Not a lot to touch on here as I feel like they’re just a known quantity at this point building on from last season and looking as expected.

Simon Mitchell’s offence has always found results and I’d put them as the frontrunners to be the top rated team on that end. Defensively, the added size at point guard together with a rim protector in Zhou Qi gives them some extra defensive tools that they did not have previously.

SYDNEY

This is obviously a seriously talented roster that’s been put together, but also one where I have a higher range of where they might finish compared to Illawarra, South East Melbourne, and Perth.

A five game preseason schedule from these guys would have been great, but it wasn’t to be, so I won’t get a good handle on them for a little while longer. Their first game did me no favours too, as they coughed up a round-high turnover percentage, and didn’t get out in transition nearly as much as expected.

There is certainly big upside on offence if they can curb the turnovers, lead the league in transition play, and find the right balance between giving everyone touches and taking smart shots.

Jordan Hunter missing time to start the season has arguably been a small blessing, as his fit is more iffy on this version of the Kings, and it allows Xavier Cooks to be logging his minutes exclusively as a big. That will help the half court spacing, whilst Cooks will also probably be a defensive player of the year candidate. Hunter can return as a second unit option.

TASMANIA

Great to get that first win out of the way in what will almost certainly be a difficult first season in the bottom quarter of the ladder.

The import recruitments have all made sense. Mikyle McIntosh hasn’t put it all together, but I like the idea of him as a mismatch on offence who can also then move and bang on defence.

The locals are as advertised (or scrutinised), and Roth probably summed that up well in his press conference of what he was trying to achieve with the majority of them.

Will Magnay is back to his all-world shot-blocking level, and together with the scrappiness of some others, they’ll be trying to put together a competitive defence.